China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as a routine training exercise involving a likely JL-3 system, remains the dominant recent reference point for traders. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches have been publicly confirmed since that event, despite ongoing regional military activity and diplomatic exchanges such as the September Australia-China defense talks that raised safety concerns. Commercial space rocket activity has continued at a steady pace, but these differ from strategic ballistic missile tests. With no visible escalation in tensions or announced test schedules in the final months of the year, market pricing reflects the historical pattern of infrequent, spaced-out Chinese missile demonstrations rather than a compressed timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertStart der ballistischen Rakete Chinas bis zum 31. Dezember?
Start der ballistischen Rakete Chinas bis zum 31. Dezember?
Ja
19% Chance
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
19% Chance
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as a routine training exercise involving a likely JL-3 system, remains the dominant recent reference point for traders. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches have been publicly confirmed since that event, despite ongoing regional military activity and diplomatic exchanges such as the September Australia-China defense talks that raised safety concerns. Commercial space rocket activity has continued at a steady pace, but these differ from strategic ballistic missile tests. With no visible escalation in tensions or announced test schedules in the final months of the year, market pricing reflects the historical pattern of infrequent, spaced-out Chinese missile demonstrations rather than a compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volumen
$10,991Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as a routine training exercise involving a likely JL-3 system, remains the dominant recent reference point for traders. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches have been publicly confirmed since that event, despite ongoing regional military activity and diplomatic exchanges such as the September Australia-China defense talks that raised safety concerns. Commercial space rocket activity has continued at a steady pace, but these differ from strategic ballistic missile tests. With no visible escalation in tensions or announced test schedules in the final months of the year, market pricing reflects the historical pattern of infrequent, spaced-out Chinese missile demonstrations rather than a compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$10,991Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as a routine training exercise involving a likely JL-3 system, remains the dominant recent reference point for traders. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches have been publicly confirmed since that event, despite ongoing regional military activity and diplomatic exchanges such as the September Australia-China defense talks that raised safety concerns. Commercial space rocket activity has continued at a steady pace, but these differ from strategic ballistic missile tests. With no visible escalation in tensions or announced test schedules in the final months of the year, market pricing reflects the historical pattern of infrequent, spaced-out Chinese missile demonstrations rather than a compressed timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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