China’s ongoing gray-zone coercion around Taiwan—through routine aerial incursions, coast guard patrols, and maritime research operations—combined with internal PLA command disruptions from senior officer purges, has sustained trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before June 2027. Taiwan’s record defense budget proposal, expanded drone procurement, and Han Kuang exercises incorporating asymmetric tactics reflect heightened preparedness that raises the costs of any amphibious operation. Beijing’s revised National Defense Mobilization Law and focus on blockade rehearsals indicate preparations for pressure short of war. With U.S.-China diplomacy, including a planned Trump-Xi meeting, still active, the 92.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with assessments that structural barriers and risk calculations continue to favor the status quo over decisive military action in the near term.