Ongoing US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled primarily over territorial issues, with Kyiv rejecting any formal concessions on Crimea or other occupied regions and Washington issuing repeated statements affirming support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. As of mid-September 2026, recent envoy visits and bilateral contacts have produced no shift toward official US recognition, consistent with prior policy positions and congressional constraints on altering sanctions or diplomatic stances. With only months remaining before 2027, the implied 96% probability on “No” reflects this lack of momentum. Late breakthroughs in trilateral negotiations or abrupt executive action could still alter the outcome before year-end.