Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island by mid-September 2026, have elevated attack risk on Bab el-Mandeb transits and prompted selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels. Daily ship arrivals tracked by IMF PortWatch remain in the 20–26 range, down roughly 50% from pre-2024 norms near 50–70, with tankers and select bulk carriers continuing while many container operators divert via the Cape of Good Hope. War-risk insurance premiums have risen to 0.5–2% of hull value (higher for Saudi calls), adding material voyage costs and supporting elevated spot freight rates on alternative routes. Trader-implied odds of a zero-transit day remain low through year-end because enforcement stays targeted rather than total, economic incentives favor selective risk-taking, and no formal closure has been declared. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IMF PortWatch releases and any shift in Houthi or coalition posture.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0 Schiffe passieren Bab el-Mandeb zu einem beliebigen Zeitpunkt bis zum...?
0 Schiffe passieren Bab el-Mandeb zu einem beliebigen Zeitpunkt bis zum...?
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
2%
31. Dezember
17%
$8,103 Vol.
30. September
$6,087 Vol.
2%
31. Dezember
$2,016 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island by mid-September 2026, have elevated attack risk on Bab el-Mandeb transits and prompted selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels. Daily ship arrivals tracked by IMF PortWatch remain in the 20–26 range, down roughly 50% from pre-2024 norms near 50–70, with tankers and select bulk carriers continuing while many container operators divert via the Cape of Good Hope. War-risk insurance premiums have risen to 0.5–2% of hull value (higher for Saudi calls), adding material voyage costs and supporting elevated spot freight rates on alternative routes. Trader-implied odds of a zero-transit day remain low through year-end because enforcement stays targeted rather than total, economic incentives favor selective risk-taking, and no formal closure has been declared. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IMF PortWatch releases and any shift in Houthi or coalition posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$8,103Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island by mid-September 2026, have elevated attack risk on Bab el-Mandeb transits and prompted selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels. Daily ship arrivals tracked by IMF PortWatch remain in the 20–26 range, down roughly 50% from pre-2024 norms near 50–70, with tankers and select bulk carriers continuing while many container operators divert via the Cape of Good Hope. War-risk insurance premiums have risen to 0.5–2% of hull value (higher for Saudi calls), adding material voyage costs and supporting elevated spot freight rates on alternative routes. Trader-implied odds of a zero-transit day remain low through year-end because enforcement stays targeted rather than total, economic incentives favor selective risk-taking, and no formal closure has been declared. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IMF PortWatch releases and any shift in Houthi or coalition posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$8,103Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island by mid-September 2026, have elevated attack risk on Bab el-Mandeb transits and prompted selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels. Daily ship arrivals tracked by IMF PortWatch remain in the 20–26 range, down roughly 50% from pre-2024 norms near 50–70, with tankers and select bulk carriers continuing while many container operators divert via the Cape of Good Hope. War-risk insurance premiums have risen to 0.5–2% of hull value (higher for Saudi calls), adding material voyage costs and supporting elevated spot freight rates on alternative routes. Trader-implied odds of a zero-transit day remain low through year-end because enforcement stays targeted rather than total, economic incentives favor selective risk-taking, and no formal closure has been declared. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IMF PortWatch releases and any shift in Houthi or coalition posture.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird es am 30. September zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?
46%
Ja
Bab el-Mandeb-Straße bis zum 31. Dezember effektiv geschlossen?
18%
Ja
Werden weniger als 170 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 28. September und 4. Oktober passieren?
22%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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