Trump’s public commitment that the United States will not resume military strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms has anchored trader expectations of continued de-escalation. Ongoing indirect talks through Qatari and Pakistani mediators remain stalled over nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, yet both sides have avoided new direct attacks in recent weeks. Iranian officials have signaled intent to prolong negotiations to sustain pressure on energy prices and Trump’s approval ratings ahead of the vote. The administration’s focus on containing the eight-month conflict during the campaign period, alongside domestic polling that shows broad public opposition to renewed escalation, has produced the current 68.5 percent implied probability that the existing ceasefire framework will hold through election day.