**Iran's supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in March, with the process unfolding amid wartime conditions and an interim leadership council. Power has since consolidated around a hardline core of IRGC commanders and clerics, including appointments to key military and security posts, while Mojtaba's role appears more symbolic amid ongoing conflict. Trader focus centers on the durability of this arrangement, potential further shifts driven by war pressures or internal dissent, and any scheduled Assembly of Experts actions or diplomatic developments that could alter the structure before year-end resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$25,149,119 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
2%
31. Oktober
6%
30. November
9%
31. Dezember
14%
30. Juni 2027
28%
$25,149,119 Vol.
30. September
$1,028,671 Vol.
2%
31. Oktober
$71,760 Vol.
6%
30. November
$36,648 Vol.
9%
31. Dezember
$4,434,373 Vol.
14%
30. Juni 2027
$290,529 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in March, with the process unfolding amid wartime conditions and an interim leadership council. Power has since consolidated around a hardline core of IRGC commanders and clerics, including appointments to key military and security posts, while Mojtaba's role appears more symbolic amid ongoing conflict. Trader focus centers on the durability of this arrangement, potential further shifts driven by war pressures or internal dissent, and any scheduled Assembly of Experts actions or diplomatic developments that could alter the structure before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volumen
$25,149,119Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in March, with the process unfolding amid wartime conditions and an interim leadership council. Power has since consolidated around a hardline core of IRGC commanders and clerics, including appointments to key military and security posts, while Mojtaba's role appears more symbolic amid ongoing conflict. Trader focus centers on the durability of this arrangement, potential further shifts driven by war pressures or internal dissent, and any scheduled Assembly of Experts actions or diplomatic developments that could alter the structure before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$25,149,119Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Iran's supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in March, with the process unfolding amid wartime conditions and an interim leadership council. Power has since consolidated around a hardline core of IRGC commanders and clerics, including appointments to key military and security posts, while Mojtaba's role appears more symbolic amid ongoing conflict. Trader focus centers on the durability of this arrangement, potential further shifts driven by war pressures or internal dissent, and any scheduled Assembly of Experts actions or diplomatic developments that could alter the structure before year-end resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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