Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has fueled trader focus on coup risks, with hardline factions repeatedly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by consolidating power through the Supreme National Security Council while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view since February. These accusations intensified in July amid truce negotiations and Khamenei’s invisibility, which some attribute to security concerns or incapacity. Broader instability stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, the brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, persistent economic strain, and external calls for regime change. Speculation about IRGC involvement persists amid factional rivalries, though no verified military plot has materialized. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines or further strikes could shift internal power balances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,129,137 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has fueled trader focus on coup risks, with hardline factions repeatedly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by consolidating power through the Supreme National Security Council while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view since February. These accusations intensified in July amid truce negotiations and Khamenei’s invisibility, which some attribute to security concerns or incapacity. Broader instability stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, the brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, persistent economic strain, and external calls for regime change. Speculation about IRGC involvement persists amid factional rivalries, though no verified military plot has materialized. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines or further strikes could shift internal power balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,129,137Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has fueled trader focus on coup risks, with hardline factions repeatedly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by consolidating power through the Supreme National Security Council while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view since February. These accusations intensified in July amid truce negotiations and Khamenei’s invisibility, which some attribute to security concerns or incapacity. Broader instability stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, the brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, persistent economic strain, and external calls for regime change. Speculation about IRGC involvement persists amid factional rivalries, though no verified military plot has materialized. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines or further strikes could shift internal power balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,129,137Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has fueled trader focus on coup risks, with hardline factions repeatedly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by consolidating power through the Supreme National Security Council while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view since February. These accusations intensified in July amid truce negotiations and Khamenei’s invisibility, which some attribute to security concerns or incapacity. Broader instability stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, the brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, persistent economic strain, and external calls for regime change. Speculation about IRGC involvement persists amid factional rivalries, though no verified military plot has materialized. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines or further strikes could shift internal power balances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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