Recent Starship Flight 13 successes, including an intact upper-stage reentry with improved heat shield performance and Starlink V3 deployment, alongside prior Super Heavy booster tower catches, have kept trader consensus near even on full reusability before 2028. Persistent challenges in achieving rapid upper-stage recovery, orbital refueling, and multiple reflights without extensive refurbishment create the tight balance, as V3 iterations address engine relight and thermal issues but timelines remain aggressive. Flight 14’s planned ship catch attempt, regulatory approvals for expanded operations, and 2027 flight cadence will serve as decisive swing factors for market-implied odds.