**Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap positioned Grok 4.8 (2.5-trillion-parameter model on a new C++ stack finishing training that week) and Grok 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, which he described as the version that “maybe [will be] better than anything” and the first expected to reach AGI.** Earlier targets for late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026 all slipped, with only interim releases like Grok 4.7 (shipped September 21) delivered so far. xAI confirmed Grok 5 was in training during its January funding round but has issued no new timeline or capability benchmarks. Traders therefore assign low near-term odds—roughly 3% by end-October and 45–55% by December 31—while watching for 4.8/4.9 launches, Colossus cluster updates, or any official xAI statements that could accelerate or further delay the flagship.