Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert15. September 34.0%
16. September 33.5%
17. September 32.8%
12. September 32.3%
NEU
NEU
9. Sep. 2026
Am oder vor dem 9. September
-
10. September
1%
11. September
1%
12. September
32%
13. September
1%
14. September
34%
15. September
34%
16. September
33%
17. September
33%
18. September
29%
19. September
1%
20. September
1%
21. September
1%
22. September
3%
23. September
9%
24. September
3%
25. September
1%
26. September
<1%
27. September
<1%
28. September
1%
29. September
1%
30. September
1%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
3%
15. September 34.0%
16. September 33.5%
17. September 32.8%
12. September 32.3%
NEU
NEU
9. Sep. 2026
Am oder vor dem 9. September
$166 Vol.
-
10. September
$202 Vol.
1%
11. September
$205 Vol.
1%
12. September
$550 Vol.
32%
13. September
$322 Vol.
1%
14. September
$205 Vol.
34%
15. September
$257 Vol.
34%
16. September
$215 Vol.
33%
17. September
$215 Vol.
33%
18. September
$411 Vol.
29%
19. September
$530 Vol.
1%
20. September
$505 Vol.
1%
21. September
$505 Vol.
1%
22. September
$345 Vol.
3%
23. September
$572 Vol.
9%
24. September
$345 Vol.
3%
25. September
$505 Vol.
1%
26. September
$505 Vol.
<1%
27. September
$505 Vol.
<1%
28. September
$379 Vol.
1%
29. September
$379 Vol.
1%
30. September
$505 Vol.
1%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
$345 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volumen
$8,674Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,674Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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