Traders assign roughly 77% implied probability to the next Google Gemini Pro model arriving by October 31, 2026, reflecting recent cadence of Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash release alongside persistent delays on frontier Pro versions. Google teased Gemini 3.5 Pro at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped to July for additional testing and agent-focused refinements, while executives have highlighted ongoing pre-training for a more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models in coding and long-horizon tasks continues to shape expectations, as does Google’s pattern of monthly Flash updates versus slower Pro cycles. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API benchmarks, and any internal progress disclosures that could shift timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$1,289,705 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
September 15
2%
September 30
17%
October 31
78%
15. Oktober
29%
$1,289,705 Vol.
September 15
$12,424 Vol.
2%
September 30
$89,056 Vol.
17%
October 31
$22,814 Vol.
78%
15. Oktober
$9,327 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly 77% implied probability to the next Google Gemini Pro model arriving by October 31, 2026, reflecting recent cadence of Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash release alongside persistent delays on frontier Pro versions. Google teased Gemini 3.5 Pro at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped to July for additional testing and agent-focused refinements, while executives have highlighted ongoing pre-training for a more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models in coding and long-horizon tasks continues to shape expectations, as does Google’s pattern of monthly Flash updates versus slower Pro cycles. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API benchmarks, and any internal progress disclosures that could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ET
Volumen
$1,289,705Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly 77% implied probability to the next Google Gemini Pro model arriving by October 31, 2026, reflecting recent cadence of Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash release alongside persistent delays on frontier Pro versions. Google teased Gemini 3.5 Pro at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped to July for additional testing and agent-focused refinements, while executives have highlighted ongoing pre-training for a more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models in coding and long-horizon tasks continues to shape expectations, as does Google’s pattern of monthly Flash updates versus slower Pro cycles. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API benchmarks, and any internal progress disclosures that could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,289,705Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Traders assign roughly 77% implied probability to the next Google Gemini Pro model arriving by October 31, 2026, reflecting recent cadence of Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash release alongside persistent delays on frontier Pro versions. Google teased Gemini 3.5 Pro at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped to July for additional testing and agent-focused refinements, while executives have highlighted ongoing pre-training for a more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models in coding and long-horizon tasks continues to shape expectations, as does Google’s pattern of monthly Flash updates versus slower Pro cycles. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API benchmarks, and any internal progress disclosures that could shift timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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