Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and international surveys drives the 98.5% market-implied probability of “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to release that energy—roughly double the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are on intercept trajectories, and historical frequency places such airbursts once every few centuries. Continuous optical, radar, and infrared tracking, plus rapid confirmation of recent small impacts like 2026 RW1, reinforces trader consensus. While an undetected fragment remains theoretically possible, the absence of credible threats or last-minute orbital shifts makes a resolution-changing surprise highly improbable before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
2% Chance
$117,067 Vol.
$117,067 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
$117,067 Vol.
$117,067 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and international surveys drives the 98.5% market-implied probability of “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to release that energy—roughly double the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are on intercept trajectories, and historical frequency places such airbursts once every few centuries. Continuous optical, radar, and infrared tracking, plus rapid confirmation of recent small impacts like 2026 RW1, reinforces trader consensus. While an undetected fragment remains theoretically possible, the absence of credible threats or last-minute orbital shifts makes a resolution-changing surprise highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$117,067Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and international surveys drives the 98.5% market-implied probability of “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to release that energy—roughly double the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are on intercept trajectories, and historical frequency places such airbursts once every few centuries. Continuous optical, radar, and infrared tracking, plus rapid confirmation of recent small impacts like 2026 RW1, reinforces trader consensus. While an undetected fragment remains theoretically possible, the absence of credible threats or last-minute orbital shifts makes a resolution-changing surprise highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$117,067Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and international surveys drives the 98.5% market-implied probability of “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to release that energy—roughly double the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are on intercept trajectories, and historical frequency places such airbursts once every few centuries. Continuous optical, radar, and infrared tracking, plus rapid confirmation of recent small impacts like 2026 RW1, reinforces trader consensus. While an undetected fragment remains theoretically possible, the absence of credible threats or last-minute orbital shifts makes a resolution-changing surprise highly improbable before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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