**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Tornados gab es 2026 in den USA?
Wie viele Tornados gab es 2026 in den USA?
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.5%
1200–1249 4.0%
1100–1149 3.5%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9. Jan. 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.5%
1200–1249 4.0%
1100–1149 3.5%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9. Jan. 2027
<950
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,289 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,368 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,192 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 Vol.
4%
1250+
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$83,038Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$83,038Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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