**Traders see an 78% probability that Nicolás Maduro will not be convicted on every count in the U.S. superseding indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The four-count case—narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and two weapons offenses—stems from allegations spanning decades and involving alleged partnerships with designated terrorist groups. Maduro, captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026, pleaded not guilty and is scheduled for trial in June 2027. His defense has moved to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and capture-legality grounds, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026. Conspiracy prosecutions require prosecutors to prove every element across interlocking charges, creating scope for partial verdicts, plea resolutions, or procedural outcomes short of convictions on all counts. The extended pretrial period, including pending immunity litigation, adds further uncertainty. Market pricing reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that these structural and legal factors make a complete conviction on every count the less probable path by the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
22% Chance
$133,111 Vol.
$133,111 Vol.
30. Dez. 2027
Ja
22% Chance
$133,111 Vol.
$133,111 Vol.
30. Dez. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an 78% probability that Nicolás Maduro will not be convicted on every count in the U.S. superseding indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.**
The four-count case—narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and two weapons offenses—stems from allegations spanning decades and involving alleged partnerships with designated terrorist groups. Maduro, captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026, pleaded not guilty and is scheduled for trial in June 2027. His defense has moved to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and capture-legality grounds, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026.
Conspiracy prosecutions require prosecutors to prove every element across interlocking charges, creating scope for partial verdicts, plea resolutions, or procedural outcomes short of convictions on all counts. The extended pretrial period, including pending immunity litigation, adds further uncertainty. Market pricing reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that these structural and legal factors make a complete conviction on every count the less probable path by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volumen
$133,111Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an 78% probability that Nicolás Maduro will not be convicted on every count in the U.S. superseding indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.**
The four-count case—narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and two weapons offenses—stems from allegations spanning decades and involving alleged partnerships with designated terrorist groups. Maduro, captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026, pleaded not guilty and is scheduled for trial in June 2027. His defense has moved to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and capture-legality grounds, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026.
Conspiracy prosecutions require prosecutors to prove every element across interlocking charges, creating scope for partial verdicts, plea resolutions, or procedural outcomes short of convictions on all counts. The extended pretrial period, including pending immunity litigation, adds further uncertainty. Market pricing reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that these structural and legal factors make a complete conviction on every count the less probable path by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$133,111Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Traders see an 78% probability that Nicolás Maduro will not be convicted on every count in the U.S. superseding indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The four-count case—narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and two weapons offenses—stems from allegations spanning decades and involving alleged partnerships with designated terrorist groups. Maduro, captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026, pleaded not guilty and is scheduled for trial in June 2027. His defense has moved to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and capture-legality grounds, with oral arguments set for November 17, 2026. Conspiracy prosecutions require prosecutors to prove every element across interlocking charges, creating scope for partial verdicts, plea resolutions, or procedural outcomes short of convictions on all counts. The extended pretrial period, including pending immunity litigation, adds further uncertainty. Market pricing reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that these structural and legal factors make a complete conviction on every count the less probable path by the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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