**Iran has not withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and shows no clear signs of doing so before 2027, consistent with the 86% trader probability on “No.”** Iranian lawmakers introduced bills for urgent withdrawal in March 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, and officials including Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi later stated that Tehran is already operating without IAEA access or declarations—effectively as a non-NPT state—while keeping formal exit “on the table” after evaluation of legal and strategic factors. Proposals remain under consideration in parliament as of August 2026, with some MPs framing continued membership as offering no benefit amid attacks and sanctions pressure. However, these moves have not advanced to formal notice under NPT Article X (which requires 90 days and a supreme national interest declaration), and analysts describe the rhetoric primarily as leverage in negotiations rather than imminent policy. Iran has instead suspended inspections and cooperation since the 2025–2026 conflicts—most recently prompting an IAEA Board resolution in September 2026 referring noncompliance to the UN Security Council—while retaining nominal treaty status. This approach preserves flexibility without triggering the full diplomatic isolation or precedent of North Korea’s exit. No official government decision or 90-day notice has materialized in the past several months, supporting the strong market view that withdrawal is unlikely before the end of 2026.