Putin’s continued dominance over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize by year-end. Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the ouster of Sergei Alpatov and reported plans for Alexander Bortnikov’s retirement, reflect factional competition over influence and resources rather than coordinated efforts to seize power. Elite surveys and independent assessments continue to rate regime stability above 7/10, citing centralized decision-making, United Russia’s electoral consolidation ahead of the September Duma vote, and the absence of credible military or security-service challenges. Ongoing economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure have produced localized discontent but no organized defection among key power centers. Historical patterns of Putin managing siloviki rivalries without losing overall control further support the current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
6% Chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6% Chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s continued dominance over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize by year-end. Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the ouster of Sergei Alpatov and reported plans for Alexander Bortnikov’s retirement, reflect factional competition over influence and resources rather than coordinated efforts to seize power. Elite surveys and independent assessments continue to rate regime stability above 7/10, citing centralized decision-making, United Russia’s electoral consolidation ahead of the September Duma vote, and the absence of credible military or security-service challenges. Ongoing economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure have produced localized discontent but no organized defection among key power centers. Historical patterns of Putin managing siloviki rivalries without losing overall control further support the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$131,224Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s continued dominance over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize by year-end. Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the ouster of Sergei Alpatov and reported plans for Alexander Bortnikov’s retirement, reflect factional competition over influence and resources rather than coordinated efforts to seize power. Elite surveys and independent assessments continue to rate regime stability above 7/10, citing centralized decision-making, United Russia’s electoral consolidation ahead of the September Duma vote, and the absence of credible military or security-service challenges. Ongoing economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure have produced localized discontent but no organized defection among key power centers. Historical patterns of Putin managing siloviki rivalries without losing overall control further support the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$131,224Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Putin’s continued dominance over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize by year-end. Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the ouster of Sergei Alpatov and reported plans for Alexander Bortnikov’s retirement, reflect factional competition over influence and resources rather than coordinated efforts to seize power. Elite surveys and independent assessments continue to rate regime stability above 7/10, citing centralized decision-making, United Russia’s electoral consolidation ahead of the September Duma vote, and the absence of credible military or security-service challenges. Ongoing economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure have produced localized discontent but no organized defection among key power centers. Historical patterns of Putin managing siloviki rivalries without losing overall control further support the current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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