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icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

Lula 70%

Flavio Bolsonaro 31%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$168,457 Vol.

Lula 70%

Flavio Bolsonaro 31%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$168,457 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$80,176 Vol.

70%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$69,175 Vol.

31%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$4,126 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$4,462 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

icon for Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

$6,851 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a consistent lead in recent first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, typically capturing 39-44% support compared with 34-41% for main challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s established voter base and campaign momentum, while fragmented right-leaning support among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos limits any single alternative from closing the gap. Market pricing aligns with these surveys, treating Lula as the clear frontrunner for the plurality and Flavio Bolsonaro as the primary alternative. A runoff on October 25 remains possible if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, with recent head-to-head polls showing a near tie between the two leading contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$168,457
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a consistent lead in recent first-round polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, typically capturing 39-44% support compared with 34-41% for main challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s established voter base and campaign momentum, while fragmented right-leaning support among candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos limits any single alternative from closing the gap. Market pricing aligns with these surveys, treating Lula as the clear frontrunner for the plurality and Flavio Bolsonaro as the primary alternative. A runoff on October 25 remains possible if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, with recent head-to-head polls showing a near tie between the two leading contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$168,457
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

70%
Ja
icon for Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

49%
Ja
icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

91%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula" mit 70%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 31%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 70¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 70% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $168.5K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 31, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist „Lula" mit 70%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 70% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 31%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.