Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior PLA and civilian officials through 2025–2026, underpins traders’ 96.2% consensus against his removal before 2027. Term limits were abolished in 2018, and no successor has been positioned ahead of the 21st Party Congress expected late next year, where analysts anticipate Xi will pursue a fourth term. Recent developments, including ongoing anti-corruption campaigns that have hollowed out the Central Military Commission while leaving Xi as the unchallenged chairman, signal continuity rather than transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, an unforeseen elite realignment at the congress, or a major policy failure prompting internal pressure, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current structure of power.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$13,109,189 交易量
$13,109,189 交易量
2026-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
是
4% 概率
$13,109,189 交易量
$13,109,189 交易量
2026-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior PLA and civilian officials through 2025–2026, underpins traders’ 96.2% consensus against his removal before 2027. Term limits were abolished in 2018, and no successor has been positioned ahead of the 21st Party Congress expected late next year, where analysts anticipate Xi will pursue a fourth term. Recent developments, including ongoing anti-corruption campaigns that have hollowed out the Central Military Commission while leaving Xi as the unchallenged chairman, signal continuity rather than transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, an unforeseen elite realignment at the congress, or a major policy failure prompting internal pressure, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current structure of power.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$13,109,189结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior PLA and civilian officials through 2025–2026, underpins traders’ 96.2% consensus against his removal before 2027. Term limits were abolished in 2018, and no successor has been positioned ahead of the 21st Party Congress expected late next year, where analysts anticipate Xi will pursue a fourth term. Recent developments, including ongoing anti-corruption campaigns that have hollowed out the Central Military Commission while leaving Xi as the unchallenged chairman, signal continuity rather than transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, an unforeseen elite realignment at the congress, or a major policy failure prompting internal pressure, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current structure of power.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$13,110,053结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ETXi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior PLA and civilian officials through 2025–2026, underpins traders’ 96.2% consensus against his removal before 2027. Term limits were abolished in 2018, and no successor has been positioned ahead of the 21st Party Congress expected late next year, where analysts anticipate Xi will pursue a fourth term. Recent developments, including ongoing anti-corruption campaigns that have hollowed out the Central Military Commission while leaving Xi as the unchallenged chairman, signal continuity rather than transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, an unforeseen elite realignment at the congress, or a major policy failure prompting internal pressure, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current structure of power.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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