The absence of any official U.S. military mobilization, invasion planning documents, or presidential authorization for cross-border ground operations underpins the 97.8% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. Bilateral cooperation continues on border security, including joint counter-drone efforts and intelligence sharing against cartels, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected foreign troop deployments on Mexican soil. Approximately 9,000 U.S. troops remain focused on domestic border support rather than offensive action. A full-scale invasion would require congressional approval, face severe diplomatic and logistical barriers, and contradict ongoing diplomatic channels on trade, migration, and counternarcotics. Late-year escalations, such as unprecedented cartel attacks or abrupt policy reversals, remain the primary theoretical variables that could still shift assessments before year-end.