Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$458,890 交易量
$458,890 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$458,890 交易量
$458,890 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$458,890结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$458,890结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETRussia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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