The robust US-Colombia security partnership under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s August 2026 inauguration drives the near-certain trader consensus against a US invasion. Recent developments include a $1 billion US security assistance package, joint counternarcotics operations authorized by Bogotá, MQ-9 Reaper drone deployments, critical minerals and energy pacts, and Colombian approval for US-supported strikes against armed groups and trafficking networks. These steps reflect shared priorities on hemispheric stability, trade, and countering transnational threats following improved diplomatic ties. An invasion would contradict this alliance framework and Colombian consent requirements. Unforeseen escalations, such as major shifts in regional conflicts, leadership changes, or sudden policy reversals, remain the primary theoretical factors that could still alter assessments before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$149,550 交易量
$149,550 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$149,550 交易量
$149,550 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The robust US-Colombia security partnership under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s August 2026 inauguration drives the near-certain trader consensus against a US invasion. Recent developments include a $1 billion US security assistance package, joint counternarcotics operations authorized by Bogotá, MQ-9 Reaper drone deployments, critical minerals and energy pacts, and Colombian approval for US-supported strikes against armed groups and trafficking networks. These steps reflect shared priorities on hemispheric stability, trade, and countering transnational threats following improved diplomatic ties. An invasion would contradict this alliance framework and Colombian consent requirements. Unforeseen escalations, such as major shifts in regional conflicts, leadership changes, or sudden policy reversals, remain the primary theoretical factors that could still alter assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$149,550结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The robust US-Colombia security partnership under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s August 2026 inauguration drives the near-certain trader consensus against a US invasion. Recent developments include a $1 billion US security assistance package, joint counternarcotics operations authorized by Bogotá, MQ-9 Reaper drone deployments, critical minerals and energy pacts, and Colombian approval for US-supported strikes against armed groups and trafficking networks. These steps reflect shared priorities on hemispheric stability, trade, and countering transnational threats following improved diplomatic ties. An invasion would contradict this alliance framework and Colombian consent requirements. Unforeseen escalations, such as major shifts in regional conflicts, leadership changes, or sudden policy reversals, remain the primary theoretical factors that could still alter assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$149,550结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETThe robust US-Colombia security partnership under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s August 2026 inauguration drives the near-certain trader consensus against a US invasion. Recent developments include a $1 billion US security assistance package, joint counternarcotics operations authorized by Bogotá, MQ-9 Reaper drone deployments, critical minerals and energy pacts, and Colombian approval for US-supported strikes against armed groups and trafficking networks. These steps reflect shared priorities on hemispheric stability, trade, and countering transnational threats following improved diplomatic ties. An invasion would contradict this alliance framework and Colombian consent requirements. Unforeseen escalations, such as major shifts in regional conflicts, leadership changes, or sudden policy reversals, remain the primary theoretical factors that could still alter assessments before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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