Recent U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on intensified economic sanctions, secondary measures, and fuel shipment restrictions that have produced widespread blackouts and shortages, rather than military mobilization. Direct contacts between officials have occurred, with Cuban leaders expressing willingness for talks based on sovereignty and reciprocity, though no formal negotiations or agenda currently exist. Administration statements reference potential further steps, yet Pentagon planning and public assessments continue to prioritize coercive diplomacy ahead of the November 2026 midterms. These factors, combined with the short remaining window in 2026 and absence of large-scale troop movements or declarations of hostilities, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no invasion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$3,350,839 交易量
$3,350,839 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$3,350,839 交易量
$3,350,839 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on intensified economic sanctions, secondary measures, and fuel shipment restrictions that have produced widespread blackouts and shortages, rather than military mobilization. Direct contacts between officials have occurred, with Cuban leaders expressing willingness for talks based on sovereignty and reciprocity, though no formal negotiations or agenda currently exist. Administration statements reference potential further steps, yet Pentagon planning and public assessments continue to prioritize coercive diplomacy ahead of the November 2026 midterms. These factors, combined with the short remaining window in 2026 and absence of large-scale troop movements or declarations of hostilities, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$3,350,839结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on intensified economic sanctions, secondary measures, and fuel shipment restrictions that have produced widespread blackouts and shortages, rather than military mobilization. Direct contacts between officials have occurred, with Cuban leaders expressing willingness for talks based on sovereignty and reciprocity, though no formal negotiations or agenda currently exist. Administration statements reference potential further steps, yet Pentagon planning and public assessments continue to prioritize coercive diplomacy ahead of the November 2026 midterms. These factors, combined with the short remaining window in 2026 and absence of large-scale troop movements or declarations of hostilities, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$3,350,839结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETRecent U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on intensified economic sanctions, secondary measures, and fuel shipment restrictions that have produced widespread blackouts and shortages, rather than military mobilization. Direct contacts between officials have occurred, with Cuban leaders expressing willingness for talks based on sovereignty and reciprocity, though no formal negotiations or agenda currently exist. Administration statements reference potential further steps, yet Pentagon planning and public assessments continue to prioritize coercive diplomacy ahead of the November 2026 midterms. These factors, combined with the short remaining window in 2026 and absence of large-scale troop movements or declarations of hostilities, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no invasion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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