Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum shows 61–74% support for remaining a province of Canada versus 22–33% favoring the start of a constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly stated her government supports staying in Confederation, while court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights have delayed or altered separatist petition efforts despite verified signatures. A competing pro-Canada petition gathered over 400,000 verified names. These factors, combined with entrenched voter preferences and the non-binding nature of the current question, underpin trader consensus that Albertans are unlikely to endorse independence in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$272,241 交易量
$272,241 交易量
2026-12-30
是
6% 概率
$272,241 交易量
$272,241 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum shows 61–74% support for remaining a province of Canada versus 22–33% favoring the start of a constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly stated her government supports staying in Confederation, while court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights have delayed or altered separatist petition efforts despite verified signatures. A competing pro-Canada petition gathered over 400,000 verified names. These factors, combined with entrenched voter preferences and the non-binding nature of the current question, underpin trader consensus that Albertans are unlikely to endorse independence in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
交易量
$272,241结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum shows 61–74% support for remaining a province of Canada versus 22–33% favoring the start of a constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly stated her government supports staying in Confederation, while court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights have delayed or altered separatist petition efforts despite verified signatures. A competing pro-Canada petition gathered over 400,000 verified names. These factors, combined with entrenched voter preferences and the non-binding nature of the current question, underpin trader consensus that Albertans are unlikely to endorse independence in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$272,241结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETRecent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum shows 61–74% support for remaining a province of Canada versus 22–33% favoring the start of a constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly stated her government supports staying in Confederation, while court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights have delayed or altered separatist petition efforts despite verified signatures. A competing pro-Canada petition gathered over 400,000 verified names. These factors, combined with entrenched voter preferences and the non-binding nature of the current question, underpin trader consensus that Albertans are unlikely to endorse independence in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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