The 25th Amendment's removal process imposes steep structural barriers, requiring the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to initiate a declaration of incapacity, followed by congressional affirmation with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Trader consensus at 97% for no removal before 2027 reflects these high thresholds, sustained political alignment within the administration, and the absence of any verified developments indicating Cabinet-level action or congressional momentum through mid-2026. Historical patterns show the provision has never produced such an outcome. Even so, late developments such as a documented health crisis triggering formal incapacity proceedings or widespread Cabinet defections amid unforeseen events could still shift probabilities within the remaining timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$50,096 交易量
$50,096 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$50,096 交易量
$50,096 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.The 25th Amendment's removal process imposes steep structural barriers, requiring the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to initiate a declaration of incapacity, followed by congressional affirmation with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Trader consensus at 97% for no removal before 2027 reflects these high thresholds, sustained political alignment within the administration, and the absence of any verified developments indicating Cabinet-level action or congressional momentum through mid-2026. Historical patterns show the provision has never produced such an outcome. Even so, late developments such as a documented health crisis triggering formal incapacity proceedings or widespread Cabinet defections amid unforeseen events could still shift probabilities within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$50,096结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.The 25th Amendment's removal process imposes steep structural barriers, requiring the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to initiate a declaration of incapacity, followed by congressional affirmation with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Trader consensus at 97% for no removal before 2027 reflects these high thresholds, sustained political alignment within the administration, and the absence of any verified developments indicating Cabinet-level action or congressional momentum through mid-2026. Historical patterns show the provision has never produced such an outcome. Even so, late developments such as a documented health crisis triggering formal incapacity proceedings or widespread Cabinet defections amid unforeseen events could still shift probabilities within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
交易量
$50,096结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETThe 25th Amendment's removal process imposes steep structural barriers, requiring the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to initiate a declaration of incapacity, followed by congressional affirmation with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Trader consensus at 97% for no removal before 2027 reflects these high thresholds, sustained political alignment within the administration, and the absence of any verified developments indicating Cabinet-level action or congressional momentum through mid-2026. Historical patterns show the provision has never produced such an outcome. Even so, late developments such as a documented health crisis triggering formal incapacity proceedings or widespread Cabinet defections amid unforeseen events could still shift probabilities within the remaining timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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