Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 交易量
$2,464 交易量
2026-08-30
1st hottest
Yes
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 交易量
$2,464 交易量
2026-08-30
1st hottest
$779 交易量
Yes
2nd hottest
$578 交易量
No
3rd hottest
$542 交易量
No
4th or lower
$565 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,464结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$2,464结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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