Jim Clyburn’s long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district’s D+13 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around his commanding lead. The 85-year-old secured the Democratic nomination by a wide margin in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee John Peterson, a lower-profile challenger who won his own primary but lacks comparable name recognition or resources. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for Republicans. A failed GOP redistricting effort earlier in the year further stabilized the map. While an unforeseen scandal, health development, or unprecedented national wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, current conditions show limited pathways for Peterson to close the distance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,901 交易量
$34,901 交易量
吉姆·克莱本(民主党)
95%
约翰·彼得森(共和党)
6%
$34,901 交易量
$34,901 交易量
吉姆·克莱本(民主党)
95%
约翰·彼得森(共和党)
6%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Jim Clyburn’s long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district’s D+13 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around his commanding lead. The 85-year-old secured the Democratic nomination by a wide margin in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee John Peterson, a lower-profile challenger who won his own primary but lacks comparable name recognition or resources. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for Republicans. A failed GOP redistricting effort earlier in the year further stabilized the map. While an unforeseen scandal, health development, or unprecedented national wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, current conditions show limited pathways for Peterson to close the distance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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