Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a launch by year-end. A January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing pushed the schedule from mid-year to Q4 pad delivery, and recent earnings commentary emphasized qualification testing, Archimedes engine hot-fires, and final integration over a firm flight date. Progress includes completed Hungry Hippo fairing operations and ongoing engine production, yet the company now prioritizes a high-cadence reusable system ready for multiple missions rather than rushing an initial flight. While a flawless sequence of static fires and wet-dress rehearsals could theoretically enable a late-December attempt, historical slips and the compressed timeline make that outcome improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9% 概率
$11,568 交易量
$11,568 交易量
2026-12-31
9% 概率
$11,568 交易量
$11,568 交易量
2026-12-31
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a launch by year-end. A January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing pushed the schedule from mid-year to Q4 pad delivery, and recent earnings commentary emphasized qualification testing, Archimedes engine hot-fires, and final integration over a firm flight date. Progress includes completed Hungry Hippo fairing operations and ongoing engine production, yet the company now prioritizes a high-cadence reusable system ready for multiple missions rather than rushing an initial flight. While a flawless sequence of static fires and wet-dress rehearsals could theoretically enable a late-December attempt, historical slips and the compressed timeline make that outcome improbable.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
交易量
$11,568结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETIf Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a launch by year-end. A January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing pushed the schedule from mid-year to Q4 pad delivery, and recent earnings commentary emphasized qualification testing, Archimedes engine hot-fires, and final integration over a firm flight date. Progress includes completed Hungry Hippo fairing operations and ongoing engine production, yet the company now prioritizes a high-cadence reusable system ready for multiple missions rather than rushing an initial flight. While a flawless sequence of static fires and wet-dress rehearsals could theoretically enable a late-December attempt, historical slips and the compressed timeline make that outcome improbable.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
交易量
$11,568结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETRocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a launch by year-end. A January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing pushed the schedule from mid-year to Q4 pad delivery, and recent earnings commentary emphasized qualification testing, Archimedes engine hot-fires, and final integration over a firm flight date. Progress includes completed Hungry Hippo fairing operations and ongoing engine production, yet the company now prioritizes a high-cadence reusable system ready for multiple missions rather than rushing an initial flight. While a flawless sequence of static fires and wet-dress rehearsals could theoretically enable a late-December attempt, historical slips and the compressed timeline make that outcome improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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