OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and subsequent revenue acceleration to a roughly $40 billion annualized run rate have anchored trader consensus around elevated post-IPO valuations, with the 1.5T+ outcome carrying an 80.7% implied probability. Despite the September 2026 listing window passing and CFO Sarah Friar signaling a 2027 debut unless growth inflects further, the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, GPT-6 Astra launch, and infrastructure commitments continue to support expectations for substantial re-rating upon public trading. Market-implied odds price in continued AI sector momentum and limited near-term regulatory or competitive setbacks that could compress multiples, while the low 3.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects confidence in eventual access to public capital at premium levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5万亿以上 80.7%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 10%
1万亿–1.25万亿 4.0%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 3.8%
$236,554 交易量
$236,554 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
<1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
1%
7500亿–1万亿
2%
1万亿–1.25万亿
4%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
10%
1.5万亿以上
81%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
4%
1.5万亿以上 80.7%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 10%
1万亿–1.25万亿 4.0%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 3.8%
$236,554 交易量
$236,554 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
$18,932 交易量
<1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
$20,521 交易量
1%
7500亿–1万亿
$47,671 交易量
2%
1万亿–1.25万亿
$26,456 交易量
4%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
$21,258 交易量
10%
1.5万亿以上
$55,672 交易量
81%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
$46,044 交易量
4%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and subsequent revenue acceleration to a roughly $40 billion annualized run rate have anchored trader consensus around elevated post-IPO valuations, with the 1.5T+ outcome carrying an 80.7% implied probability. Despite the September 2026 listing window passing and CFO Sarah Friar signaling a 2027 debut unless growth inflects further, the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, GPT-6 Astra launch, and infrastructure commitments continue to support expectations for substantial re-rating upon public trading. Market-implied odds price in continued AI sector momentum and limited near-term regulatory or competitive setbacks that could compress multiples, while the low 3.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects confidence in eventual access to public capital at premium levels.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$236,554结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETThis market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and subsequent revenue acceleration to a roughly $40 billion annualized run rate have anchored trader consensus around elevated post-IPO valuations, with the 1.5T+ outcome carrying an 80.7% implied probability. Despite the September 2026 listing window passing and CFO Sarah Friar signaling a 2027 debut unless growth inflects further, the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, GPT-6 Astra launch, and infrastructure commitments continue to support expectations for substantial re-rating upon public trading. Market-implied odds price in continued AI sector momentum and limited near-term regulatory or competitive setbacks that could compress multiples, while the low 3.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects confidence in eventual access to public capital at premium levels.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$236,554结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETOpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and subsequent revenue acceleration to a roughly $40 billion annualized run rate have anchored trader consensus around elevated post-IPO valuations, with the 1.5T+ outcome carrying an 80.7% implied probability. Despite the September 2026 listing window passing and CFO Sarah Friar signaling a 2027 debut unless growth inflects further, the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, GPT-6 Astra launch, and infrastructure commitments continue to support expectations for substantial re-rating upon public trading. Market-implied odds price in continued AI sector momentum and limited near-term regulatory or competitive setbacks that could compress multiples, while the low 3.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects confidence in eventual access to public capital at premium levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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