Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied in party vote share near 29–30% each, with the election set for 7 November 2026. This tight contest under New Zealand’s MMP system, combined with elevated support for minor parties such as the Greens, NZ First, ACT and the Opportunity Party, has concentrated trader consensus on a Labour or National win by 0–5 points. Policy announcements on grocery competition, health prevention and rural issues, alongside coalition tensions, continue to influence undecided voters and minor-party flows that could widen or narrow the final popular-vote gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Labour 0-5% 27%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 13%
Labour 5-10% 12%
$20,172 交易量
$20,172 交易量
2027-10-31
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
13%
Labour 5-10%
11%
Labour 0-5%
27%
National 0-5%
26%
National 5-10%
3%
National 10%+
1%
其他政党获胜
1%
Labour 0-5% 27%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 13%
Labour 5-10% 12%
$20,172 交易量
$20,172 交易量
2027-10-31
Labour 15%+
$725 交易量
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,717 交易量
13%
Labour 5-10%
$770 交易量
11%
Labour 0-5%
$1,475 交易量
27%
National 0-5%
$2,676 交易量
26%
National 5-10%
$938 交易量
3%
National 10%+
$7,467 交易量
1%
其他政党获胜
$405 交易量
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied in party vote share near 29–30% each, with the election set for 7 November 2026. This tight contest under New Zealand’s MMP system, combined with elevated support for minor parties such as the Greens, NZ First, ACT and the Opportunity Party, has concentrated trader consensus on a Labour or National win by 0–5 points. Policy announcements on grocery competition, health prevention and rural issues, alongside coalition tensions, continue to influence undecided voters and minor-party flows that could widen or narrow the final popular-vote gap.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$20,172结束日期
2027-11-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETA general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied in party vote share near 29–30% each, with the election set for 7 November 2026. This tight contest under New Zealand’s MMP system, combined with elevated support for minor parties such as the Greens, NZ First, ACT and the Opportunity Party, has concentrated trader consensus on a Labour or National win by 0–5 points. Policy announcements on grocery competition, health prevention and rural issues, alongside coalition tensions, continue to influence undecided voters and minor-party flows that could widen or narrow the final popular-vote gap.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
交易量
$20,172结束日期
2027-11-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETRecent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied in party vote share near 29–30% each, with the election set for 7 November 2026. This tight contest under New Zealand’s MMP system, combined with elevated support for minor parties such as the Greens, NZ First, ACT and the Opportunity Party, has concentrated trader consensus on a Labour or National win by 0–5 points. Policy announcements on grocery competition, health prevention and rural issues, alongside coalition tensions, continue to influence undecided voters and minor-party flows that could widen or narrow the final popular-vote gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
57%
Labour
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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