**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$246,041 交易量
$246,041 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$246,041 交易量
$246,041 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,041结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,041结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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