Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
440万-460万平方公里 78.3%
420万-440万平方公里 18.9%
少于400万平方公里 1.5%
400-420万平方公里 1.3%
$78,113 交易量
$78,113 交易量
2026-09-30
少于400万平方公里
2%
400-420万平方公里
1%
420万-440万平方公里
17%
440万-460万平方公里
72%
460万-480万平方公里
1%
480万-500万平方公里
1%
500万平方公里以上
<1%
440万-460万平方公里 78.3%
420万-440万平方公里 18.9%
少于400万平方公里 1.5%
400-420万平方公里 1.3%
$78,113 交易量
$78,113 交易量
2026-09-30
少于400万平方公里
$33,489 交易量
2%
400-420万平方公里
$7,400 交易量
1%
420万-440万平方公里
$3,682 交易量
17%
440万-460万平方公里
$4,039 交易量
72%
460万-480万平方公里
$10,207 交易量
1%
480万-500万平方公里
$4,284 交易量
1%
500万平方公里以上
$15,013 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$78,113结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$78,113结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETRecent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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