**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 交易量
$20,752 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 交易量
$20,752 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
$657 交易量
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 交易量
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 交易量
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 交易量
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,263 交易量
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$20,752结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$20,752结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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