Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 91.3% implied probability, reflecting the index's historical rarity—roughly one event every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent in 1991 at Pinatubo. Ongoing 2026 activity remains limited to smaller-scale events, including Anak Krakatau's early-September ash plumes reaching 15 km (still well below VEI 6 thresholds) and persistent VEI 3–4 eruptions at Semeru and others, per Smithsonian and USGS monitoring. No monitored volcano currently exhibits the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns indicative of imminent colossal explosivity. While an unexpected escalation at a restless system like Anak Krakatau or a caldera could theoretically shift odds before year-end, the absence of such signals in the final months reinforces the market's strong conviction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
$146,460 交易量
$146,460 交易量
2027-03-30
是
9% 概率
$146,460 交易量
$146,460 交易量
2027-03-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 91.3% implied probability, reflecting the index's historical rarity—roughly one event every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent in 1991 at Pinatubo. Ongoing 2026 activity remains limited to smaller-scale events, including Anak Krakatau's early-September ash plumes reaching 15 km (still well below VEI 6 thresholds) and persistent VEI 3–4 eruptions at Semeru and others, per Smithsonian and USGS monitoring. No monitored volcano currently exhibits the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns indicative of imminent colossal explosivity. While an unexpected escalation at a restless system like Anak Krakatau or a caldera could theoretically shift odds before year-end, the absence of such signals in the final months reinforces the market's strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$146,460结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 91.3% implied probability, reflecting the index's historical rarity—roughly one event every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent in 1991 at Pinatubo. Ongoing 2026 activity remains limited to smaller-scale events, including Anak Krakatau's early-September ash plumes reaching 15 km (still well below VEI 6 thresholds) and persistent VEI 3–4 eruptions at Semeru and others, per Smithsonian and USGS monitoring. No monitored volcano currently exhibits the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns indicative of imminent colossal explosivity. While an unexpected escalation at a restless system like Anak Krakatau or a caldera could theoretically shift odds before year-end, the absence of such signals in the final months reinforces the market's strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$146,460结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETTrader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 91.3% implied probability, reflecting the index's historical rarity—roughly one event every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent in 1991 at Pinatubo. Ongoing 2026 activity remains limited to smaller-scale events, including Anak Krakatau's early-September ash plumes reaching 15 km (still well below VEI 6 thresholds) and persistent VEI 3–4 eruptions at Semeru and others, per Smithsonian and USGS monitoring. No monitored volcano currently exhibits the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns indicative of imminent colossal explosivity. While an unexpected escalation at a restless system like Anak Krakatau or a caldera could theoretically shift odds before year-end, the absence of such signals in the final months reinforces the market's strong conviction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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