The short remaining window through December 2026 drives the 97% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles. USGS monitoring records only background seismicity, with recent events limited to magnitudes below 3.1 near Compton and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the Newport-Inglewood or San Andreas. Long-term UCERF3 estimates place the annual probability of a qualifying event at roughly 2-4%, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries since the 1994 Northridge quake. Elevated tectonic stress noted in 2026 studies affects multi-decadal hazard rather than near-term odds. Ongoing USGS seismic network updates through year-end remain the key data points that could shift resolution risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前洛杉矶发生6.5级以上地震？
2027年之前洛杉矶发生6.5级以上地震？
3% 概率
$20,096 交易量
$20,096 交易量
2027-01-07
3% 概率
$20,096 交易量
$20,096 交易量
2027-01-07
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window through December 2026 drives the 97% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles. USGS monitoring records only background seismicity, with recent events limited to magnitudes below 3.1 near Compton and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the Newport-Inglewood or San Andreas. Long-term UCERF3 estimates place the annual probability of a qualifying event at roughly 2-4%, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries since the 1994 Northridge quake. Elevated tectonic stress noted in 2026 studies affects multi-decadal hazard rather than near-term odds. Ongoing USGS seismic network updates through year-end remain the key data points that could shift resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$20,096结束日期
2027-01-08市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window through December 2026 drives the 97% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles. USGS monitoring records only background seismicity, with recent events limited to magnitudes below 3.1 near Compton and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the Newport-Inglewood or San Andreas. Long-term UCERF3 estimates place the annual probability of a qualifying event at roughly 2-4%, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries since the 1994 Northridge quake. Elevated tectonic stress noted in 2026 studies affects multi-decadal hazard rather than near-term odds. Ongoing USGS seismic network updates through year-end remain the key data points that could shift resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$20,096结束日期
2027-01-08市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThe short remaining window through December 2026 drives the 97% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles. USGS monitoring records only background seismicity, with recent events limited to magnitudes below 3.1 near Compton and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the Newport-Inglewood or San Andreas. Long-term UCERF3 estimates place the annual probability of a qualifying event at roughly 2-4%, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries since the 1994 Northridge quake. Elevated tectonic stress noted in 2026 studies affects multi-decadal hazard rather than near-term odds. Ongoing USGS seismic network updates through year-end remain the key data points that could shift resolution risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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