The closely matched market-implied odds between zero and one-to-three Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 stem from persistently unfavorable conditions that have suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through early September. Stronger-than-normal wind shear tied to a lingering El Niño pattern, combined with below-average sea surface temperatures across the main development region, has limited storm organization and intensification to the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows fewer named systems than the long-term average of six to seven hurricanes, while steering patterns and dry air intrusions continue to hinder late-season formation. Updated seasonal outlooks and any shift toward La Niña conditions could alter remaining formation windows before November 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
0 45%
1-3 43%
4-6 10%
7+ 2.3%
$21,327 交易量
$21,327 交易量
2026-12-31
0
45%
1-3
43%
4-6
10%
7+
2%
0 45%
1-3 43%
4-6 10%
7+ 2.3%
$21,327 交易量
$21,327 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$10,468 交易量
45%
1-3
$2,926 交易量
43%
4-6
$6,129 交易量
10%
7+
$1,804 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.The closely matched market-implied odds between zero and one-to-three Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 stem from persistently unfavorable conditions that have suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through early September. Stronger-than-normal wind shear tied to a lingering El Niño pattern, combined with below-average sea surface temperatures across the main development region, has limited storm organization and intensification to the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows fewer named systems than the long-term average of six to seven hurricanes, while steering patterns and dry air intrusions continue to hinder late-season formation. Updated seasonal outlooks and any shift toward La Niña conditions could alter remaining formation windows before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
交易量
$21,327结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.The closely matched market-implied odds between zero and one-to-three Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 stem from persistently unfavorable conditions that have suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through early September. Stronger-than-normal wind shear tied to a lingering El Niño pattern, combined with below-average sea surface temperatures across the main development region, has limited storm organization and intensification to the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows fewer named systems than the long-term average of six to seven hurricanes, while steering patterns and dry air intrusions continue to hinder late-season formation. Updated seasonal outlooks and any shift toward La Niña conditions could alter remaining formation windows before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
交易量
$21,327结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETThe closely matched market-implied odds between zero and one-to-three Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 stem from persistently unfavorable conditions that have suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through early September. Stronger-than-normal wind shear tied to a lingering El Niño pattern, combined with below-average sea surface temperatures across the main development region, has limited storm organization and intensification to the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows fewer named systems than the long-term average of six to seven hurricanes, while steering patterns and dry air intrusions continue to hinder late-season formation. Updated seasonal outlooks and any shift toward La Niña conditions could alter remaining formation windows before November 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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