Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$122,366 交易量
$122,366 交易量
2026-11-02
凯文·穆林（民主党）
96%
查尔斯·霍尔特（共和党）
<1%
$122,366 交易量
$122,366 交易量
2026-11-02
凯文·穆林（民主党）
$94,061 交易量
96%
查尔斯·霍尔特（共和党）
$28,305 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$122,366结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$122,366结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETIncumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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