Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,593 交易量
$20,593 交易量
2026-11-02
乔希·哈德尔（民主党）
94%
约翰·麦克布赖德（共和党）
6%
$20,593 交易量
$20,593 交易量
2026-11-02
乔希·哈德尔（民主党）
$13,285 交易量
94%
约翰·麦克布赖德（共和党）
$7,309 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$20,593结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,593结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETIncumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Partisan Voter Index and multiple forecasters' Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings. Harder advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, where John McBride placed second at roughly 23 percent. Harder's substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $3 million in the cycle compared to McBride's under $60,000, has supported broad voter outreach in a district spanning parts of San Joaquin and Contra Costa counties. Traders assign McBride just a 5.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for challengers in similarly structured seats. Late developments such as unexpected national political shifts or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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