Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a collapsed June 2026 ceasefire and memorandum of understanding, have kept formal diplomatic relations frozen since 1979. Renewed military strikes, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and sanctions relief have sustained elevated tensions through September, with the State Department maintaining Level 4 travel advisories and operating only a virtual embassy. Switzerland continues to serve as protecting power, while visa processing occurs via third countries. These conditions, reinforced by repeated negotiation breakdowns and active regional conflict, underpin trader consensus against any embassy reopening this year. A rapid shift toward full normalization before December 31 would require verifiable de-escalation and bilateral agreement on core disputes, outcomes viewed as improbable under present circumstances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$159,455 交易量
$159,455 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$159,455 交易量
$159,455 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a collapsed June 2026 ceasefire and memorandum of understanding, have kept formal diplomatic relations frozen since 1979. Renewed military strikes, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and sanctions relief have sustained elevated tensions through September, with the State Department maintaining Level 4 travel advisories and operating only a virtual embassy. Switzerland continues to serve as protecting power, while visa processing occurs via third countries. These conditions, reinforced by repeated negotiation breakdowns and active regional conflict, underpin trader consensus against any embassy reopening this year. A rapid shift toward full normalization before December 31 would require verifiable de-escalation and bilateral agreement on core disputes, outcomes viewed as improbable under present circumstances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$159,455結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a collapsed June 2026 ceasefire and memorandum of understanding, have kept formal diplomatic relations frozen since 1979. Renewed military strikes, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and sanctions relief have sustained elevated tensions through September, with the State Department maintaining Level 4 travel advisories and operating only a virtual embassy. Switzerland continues to serve as protecting power, while visa processing occurs via third countries. These conditions, reinforced by repeated negotiation breakdowns and active regional conflict, underpin trader consensus against any embassy reopening this year. A rapid shift toward full normalization before December 31 would require verifiable de-escalation and bilateral agreement on core disputes, outcomes viewed as improbable under present circumstances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$159,455結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETOngoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a collapsed June 2026 ceasefire and memorandum of understanding, have kept formal diplomatic relations frozen since 1979. Renewed military strikes, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and sanctions relief have sustained elevated tensions through September, with the State Department maintaining Level 4 travel advisories and operating only a virtual embassy. Switzerland continues to serve as protecting power, while visa processing occurs via third countries. These conditions, reinforced by repeated negotiation breakdowns and active regional conflict, underpin trader consensus against any embassy reopening this year. A rapid shift toward full normalization before December 31 would require verifiable de-escalation and bilateral agreement on core disputes, outcomes viewed as improbable under present circumstances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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