Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal as leverage amid IAEA disputes, suspended inspections, and post-2025 military strikes on nuclear sites, yet no formal notice has been issued. Parliamentary bills remain under consideration without Guardian Council approval or Supreme National Security Council endorsement, while Tehran continues selective IAEA engagement at sites like Bushehr and pursues broader diplomatic channels, including a 2026 Cairo agreement framework and U.S. talks. Analysts view such threats primarily as negotiating tools rather than imminent policy, given the diplomatic isolation, loss of Article IV benefits, and strategic value of operating under the treaty without full compliance. The 86.5% trader consensus on no withdrawal before 2027 reflects these structural and tactical constraints over short-term escalation signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
$458,536 交易量
$458,536 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 機率
$458,536 交易量
$458,536 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal as leverage amid IAEA disputes, suspended inspections, and post-2025 military strikes on nuclear sites, yet no formal notice has been issued. Parliamentary bills remain under consideration without Guardian Council approval or Supreme National Security Council endorsement, while Tehran continues selective IAEA engagement at sites like Bushehr and pursues broader diplomatic channels, including a 2026 Cairo agreement framework and U.S. talks. Analysts view such threats primarily as negotiating tools rather than imminent policy, given the diplomatic isolation, loss of Article IV benefits, and strategic value of operating under the treaty without full compliance. The 86.5% trader consensus on no withdrawal before 2027 reflects these structural and tactical constraints over short-term escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$458,536結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal as leverage amid IAEA disputes, suspended inspections, and post-2025 military strikes on nuclear sites, yet no formal notice has been issued. Parliamentary bills remain under consideration without Guardian Council approval or Supreme National Security Council endorsement, while Tehran continues selective IAEA engagement at sites like Bushehr and pursues broader diplomatic channels, including a 2026 Cairo agreement framework and U.S. talks. Analysts view such threats primarily as negotiating tools rather than imminent policy, given the diplomatic isolation, loss of Article IV benefits, and strategic value of operating under the treaty without full compliance. The 86.5% trader consensus on no withdrawal before 2027 reflects these structural and tactical constraints over short-term escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$458,536結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETIranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal as leverage amid IAEA disputes, suspended inspections, and post-2025 military strikes on nuclear sites, yet no formal notice has been issued. Parliamentary bills remain under consideration without Guardian Council approval or Supreme National Security Council endorsement, while Tehran continues selective IAEA engagement at sites like Bushehr and pursues broader diplomatic channels, including a 2026 Cairo agreement framework and U.S. talks. Analysts view such threats primarily as negotiating tools rather than imminent policy, given the diplomatic isolation, loss of Article IV benefits, and strategic value of operating under the treaty without full compliance. The 86.5% trader consensus on no withdrawal before 2027 reflects these structural and tactical constraints over short-term escalation signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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