Recent parliamentary initiatives in Iran, including statements from over 130 lawmakers and a triple-urgency bill submitted in mid-September 2026, have highlighted NPT withdrawal as an option amid IAEA referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council and prior attacks on nuclear sites. Senior officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, have stated that no decision has been finalized and any move would depend on U.S. actions, while emphasizing ongoing adherence to the Supreme Leader's religious decree against nuclear weapons and continued mediation via Qatar and Pakistan. Withdrawal under Article X requires three months' notice plus coordinated approval across Iran's governmental institutions, a threshold not yet met despite heightened rhetoric. These factors underpin trader consensus that formal exit remains unlikely before 2027, as diplomatic channels and internal consensus processes continue.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
12% 機率
$569,323 交易量
$569,323 交易量
2026-12-31
是
12% 機率
$569,323 交易量
$569,323 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent parliamentary initiatives in Iran, including statements from over 130 lawmakers and a triple-urgency bill submitted in mid-September 2026, have highlighted NPT withdrawal as an option amid IAEA referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council and prior attacks on nuclear sites. Senior officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, have stated that no decision has been finalized and any move would depend on U.S. actions, while emphasizing ongoing adherence to the Supreme Leader's religious decree against nuclear weapons and continued mediation via Qatar and Pakistan. Withdrawal under Article X requires three months' notice plus coordinated approval across Iran's governmental institutions, a threshold not yet met despite heightened rhetoric. These factors underpin trader consensus that formal exit remains unlikely before 2027, as diplomatic channels and internal consensus processes continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$569,323結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent parliamentary initiatives in Iran, including statements from over 130 lawmakers and a triple-urgency bill submitted in mid-September 2026, have highlighted NPT withdrawal as an option amid IAEA referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council and prior attacks on nuclear sites. Senior officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, have stated that no decision has been finalized and any move would depend on U.S. actions, while emphasizing ongoing adherence to the Supreme Leader's religious decree against nuclear weapons and continued mediation via Qatar and Pakistan. Withdrawal under Article X requires three months' notice plus coordinated approval across Iran's governmental institutions, a threshold not yet met despite heightened rhetoric. These factors underpin trader consensus that formal exit remains unlikely before 2027, as diplomatic channels and internal consensus processes continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$569,323結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRecent parliamentary initiatives in Iran, including statements from over 130 lawmakers and a triple-urgency bill submitted in mid-September 2026, have highlighted NPT withdrawal as an option amid IAEA referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council and prior attacks on nuclear sites. Senior officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, have stated that no decision has been finalized and any move would depend on U.S. actions, while emphasizing ongoing adherence to the Supreme Leader's religious decree against nuclear weapons and continued mediation via Qatar and Pakistan. Withdrawal under Article X requires three months' notice plus coordinated approval across Iran's governmental institutions, a threshold not yet met despite heightened rhetoric. These factors underpin trader consensus that formal exit remains unlikely before 2027, as diplomatic channels and internal consensus processes continue.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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