The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency features a crowded field that has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered. FAST’s decision to run both Nonu Laulu William Mauia and Puaalatamai Filemoni risks splitting its support, while HRPP’s Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo and independent Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo draw distinct voter bases. The contest follows the Electoral Court’s June rulings that voided the prior result over bribery findings against the previous two MPs, prompting the third poll in the seat within 18 months. Nominations closed on August 28 after a short campaign focused on local infrastructure and party loyalty. With no dominant frontrunner and multiple viable contenders, the current distribution of implied probabilities mirrors the absence of decisive polling or late endorsements that could consolidate support before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 43%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 19%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 15.6%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 7.0%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia
43%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo
19%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo
16%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni
11%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 43%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 19%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 15.6%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 7.0%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia
43%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo
19%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo
16%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni
11%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency features a crowded field that has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered. FAST’s decision to run both Nonu Laulu William Mauia and Puaalatamai Filemoni risks splitting its support, while HRPP’s Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo and independent Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo draw distinct voter bases. The contest follows the Electoral Court’s June rulings that voided the prior result over bribery findings against the previous two MPs, prompting the third poll in the seat within 18 months. Nominations closed on August 28 after a short campaign focused on local infrastructure and party loyalty. With no dominant frontrunner and multiple viable contenders, the current distribution of implied probabilities mirrors the absence of decisive polling or late endorsements that could consolidate support before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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