The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 45%
Z.ai 37.5%
OpenAI 9%
阿里巴巴 7%
$38,648 交易量
$38,648 交易量
2026-10-31
45%
Z.ai
37%
OpenAI
9%
阿里巴巴
7%
Moonshot
3%
美團
1%
Anthropic
1%
百度
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
騰訊
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Google 45%
Z.ai 37.5%
OpenAI 9%
阿里巴巴 7%
$38,648 交易量
$38,648 交易量
2026-10-31
$10,583 交易量
45%
Z.ai
$2,084 交易量
37%
OpenAI
$3,703 交易量
9%
阿里巴巴
$10,472 交易量
7%
Moonshot
$881 交易量
3%
美團
$1,535 交易量
1%
Anthropic
$704 交易量
1%
百度
$729 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$1,179 交易量
1%
Meta
$663 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$682 交易量
<1%
小米
$701 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$684 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$707 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$749 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$632 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$495 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$646 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$422 交易量
<1%
微軟
$395 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
交易量
$38,648結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$38,648結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETThe closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions