Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a decisive edge in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling gains, including a two-point rise to 42% in the latest Quaest survey against Fernando Haddad at 27%. This momentum stems primarily from expanded support among independent voters, alongside a fragmented field where other candidates register minimal support. The market's 98% consensus on Tarcísio reflects these structural advantages of incumbency and the absence of viable alternatives capable of forcing a competitive runoff. A late surge by opposition figures, major unforeseen events, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote on October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯 98.2%
費爾南多·哈達德 <1%
艾莉卡·希爾頓 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$308,591 交易量
$308,591 交易量
2026-10-03
塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
98%
費爾南多·哈達德
1%
艾莉卡·希爾頓
1%
金·卡塔古里
<1%
馬西奧·法蘭薩
<1%
塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯 98.2%
費爾南多·哈達德 <1%
艾莉卡·希爾頓 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$308,591 交易量
$308,591 交易量
2026-10-03
塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$146,132 交易量
98%
費爾南多·哈達德
$51,461 交易量
1%
艾莉卡·希爾頓
$23,068 交易量
1%
金·卡塔古里
$77,262 交易量
<1%
馬西奧·法蘭薩
$10,668 交易量
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a decisive edge in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling gains, including a two-point rise to 42% in the latest Quaest survey against Fernando Haddad at 27%. This momentum stems primarily from expanded support among independent voters, alongside a fragmented field where other candidates register minimal support. The market's 98% consensus on Tarcísio reflects these structural advantages of incumbency and the absence of viable alternatives capable of forcing a competitive runoff. A late surge by opposition figures, major unforeseen events, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote on October 4.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$308,591結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETThe São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a decisive edge in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling gains, including a two-point rise to 42% in the latest Quaest survey against Fernando Haddad at 27%. This momentum stems primarily from expanded support among independent voters, alongside a fragmented field where other candidates register minimal support. The market's 98% consensus on Tarcísio reflects these structural advantages of incumbency and the absence of viable alternatives capable of forcing a competitive runoff. A late surge by opposition figures, major unforeseen events, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote on October 4.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$308,591結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETTarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a decisive edge in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling gains, including a two-point rise to 42% in the latest Quaest survey against Fernando Haddad at 27%. This momentum stems primarily from expanded support among independent voters, alongside a fragmented field where other candidates register minimal support. The market's 98% consensus on Tarcísio reflects these structural advantages of incumbency and the absence of viable alternatives capable of forcing a competitive runoff. A late surge by opposition figures, major unforeseen events, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote on October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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