Lula leads as the clear favorite to win Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as incumbent with strong name recognition and consistent polling leads of roughly 39–47% in recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and others. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger at 30–41%, buoyed by his father’s base and party infrastructure but limited by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and ongoing legal constraints. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register only low single digits, fragmenting opposition support. Recent campaign launches, tightening runoff simulations, and the polarized electorate have reinforced trader consensus around these early probabilities ahead of the first-round threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魯拉 69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 32%
羅納爾多·凱亞多 <1%
澤馬 <1%
$141,811 交易量
$141,811 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
32%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
<1%
澤馬
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
<1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
<1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
<1%
Samara
<1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
<1%
魯拉 69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 32%
羅納爾多·凱亞多 <1%
澤馬 <1%
$141,811 交易量
$141,811 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
$63,202 交易量
69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$59,503 交易量
32%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
$4,126 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$546 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$4,462 交易量
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,189 交易量
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$6,851 交易量
<1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
$477 交易量
<1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
$288 交易量
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$296 交易量
<1%
Samara
$296 交易量
<1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
$316 交易量
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
$259 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads as the clear favorite to win Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as incumbent with strong name recognition and consistent polling leads of roughly 39–47% in recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and others. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger at 30–41%, buoyed by his father’s base and party infrastructure but limited by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and ongoing legal constraints. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register only low single digits, fragmenting opposition support. Recent campaign launches, tightening runoff simulations, and the polarized electorate have reinforced trader consensus around these early probabilities ahead of the first-round threshold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
交易量
$141,811結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads as the clear favorite to win Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as incumbent with strong name recognition and consistent polling leads of roughly 39–47% in recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and others. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger at 30–41%, buoyed by his father’s base and party infrastructure but limited by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and ongoing legal constraints. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register only low single digits, fragmenting opposition support. Recent campaign launches, tightening runoff simulations, and the polarized electorate have reinforced trader consensus around these early probabilities ahead of the first-round threshold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$141,811結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula leads as the clear favorite to win Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as incumbent with strong name recognition and consistent polling leads of roughly 39–47% in recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and others. Flavio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger at 30–41%, buoyed by his father’s base and party infrastructure but limited by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and ongoing legal constraints. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register only low single digits, fragmenting opposition support. Recent campaign launches, tightening runoff simulations, and the polarized electorate have reinforced trader consensus around these early probabilities ahead of the first-round threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions