**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於安德烈·杜·普拉多 35.2%
瑪麗娜·席爾瓦 25%
西蒙妮·特貝特 15%
吉列爾梅·德里特 14%
$45,362 交易量
$45,362 交易量
安德烈·杜·普拉多
35%
瑪麗娜·席爾瓦
25%
西蒙妮·特貝特
15%
吉列爾梅·德里特
14%
薩萊斯
2%
馬爾西奧·阿爾維斯
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
韋勒·貢薩爾維斯
<1%
威廉·特謝拉
<1%
德莉安娜·費雷拉博士
<1%
瑪伊拉·德·索薩
<1%
索尼婭·弗朗辛
<1%
安德烈·杜·普拉多 35.2%
瑪麗娜·席爾瓦 25%
西蒙妮·特貝特 15%
吉列爾梅·德里特 14%
$45,362 交易量
$45,362 交易量
安德烈·杜·普拉多
35%
瑪麗娜·席爾瓦
25%
西蒙妮·特貝特
15%
吉列爾梅·德里特
14%
薩萊斯
2%
馬爾西奧·阿爾維斯
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
韋勒·貢薩爾維斯
<1%
威廉·特謝拉
<1%
德莉安娜·費雷拉博士
<1%
瑪伊拉·德·索薩
<1%
索尼婭·弗朗辛
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions