**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於埃爾德 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 10.3%
澤基尼亞·馬里尼奧 4.0%
艾德萊恩·羅德里格斯 2.8%
$17,237 交易量
$17,237 交易量
2026-10-04
埃爾德
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
10%
澤基尼亞·馬里尼奧
4%
艾德萊恩·羅德里格斯
3%
Breno Guimarães
1%
費爾南達·洛佩斯
1%
塞爾索·薩比諾
1%
康蒂
<1%
Chicão
<1%
吉塞萊·弗雷塔斯
<1%
威廉·達席爾瓦
<1%
埃爾德 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 10.3%
澤基尼亞·馬里尼奧 4.0%
艾德萊恩·羅德里格斯 2.8%
$17,237 交易量
$17,237 交易量
2026-10-04
埃爾德
$11,644 交易量
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$635 交易量
10%
澤基尼亞·馬里尼奧
$569 交易量
4%
艾德萊恩·羅德里格斯
$600 交易量
3%
Breno Guimarães
$529 交易量
1%
費爾南達·洛佩斯
$726 交易量
1%
塞爾索·薩比諾
$499 交易量
1%
康蒂
$551 交易量
<1%
Chicão
$488 交易量
<1%
吉塞萊·弗雷塔斯
$562 交易量
<1%
威廉·達席爾瓦
$436 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
交易量
$17,237結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$17,237結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions