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icon for 在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）
地緣政治·英國勞工領導力

在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）

icon for 在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）
地緣政治·英國勞工領導力

在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

2027年前沒有 36%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 35%

默茲－德國總理 7.1%

迪亚斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 5.0%

Polymarket

$277,607 交易量

2027年前沒有 36%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 35%

默茲－德國總理 7.1%

迪亚斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 5.0%

Polymarket

$277,607 交易量

2027年前沒有

$88,347 交易量

36%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理

$36,342 交易量

35%

默茲－德國總理

$6,900 交易量

7%

迪亚斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統

$11,401 交易量

5%

羅德里格斯 - 委內瑞拉代理總統

$12,385 交易量

4%

桑切斯－西班牙首相

$7,657 交易量

4%

澤連斯基 - 烏克蘭總統

$7,513 交易量

2%

普京 - 俄羅斯總統

$7,015 交易量

2%

馬克龍 - 法國總統

$10,013 交易量

2%

埃爾多安 - 土耳其總統

$10,130 交易量

1%

盧拉·達席爾瓦－巴西總統

$6,554 交易量

1%

特朗普 - 美國總統

$5,295 交易量

1%

習近平 - 中共中央總書記

$9,145 交易量

1%

阿巴斯 - 巴勒斯坦總統

$7,393 交易量

1%

勒科爾努 - 法國總理

$6,971 交易量

1%

金正恩 - 北韓最高領導人

$5,192 交易量

1%

高市 - 日本首相

$5,461 交易量

1%

米萊伊－阿根廷總統

$7,338 交易量

1%

阿爾巴尼斯－澳洲總理

$6,610 交易量

<1%

沙拉——敘利亞總統

$7,950 交易量

<1%

紐森 - 加州州長

$5,104 交易量

<1%

辛鮑姆 - 墨西哥總統

$6,890 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, represent the primary near-term catalyst shaping trader views, as polls show Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition trailing the opposition bloc and struggling to secure a majority amid ongoing security and domestic pressures. This keeps the implied probability for Netanyahu exiting office before 2027 nearly even with the “none before 2027” outcome. German Chancellor Merz faces coalition strains and state-level setbacks but lacks an immediate federal vote or resignation trigger. Most other listed leaders operate under stable term structures or distant electoral cycles through late 2026, with limited verified developments indicating imminent departures. Shifts could arise from the Israeli vote outcome, surprise coalition realignments, or unforeseen institutional pressures in other capitals.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$277,607
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, represent the primary near-term catalyst shaping trader views, as polls show Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition trailing the opposition bloc and struggling to secure a majority amid ongoing security and domestic pressures. This keeps the implied probability for Netanyahu exiting office before 2027 nearly even with the “none before 2027” outcome. German Chancellor Merz faces coalition strains and state-level setbacks but lacks an immediate federal vote or resignation trigger. Most other listed leaders operate under stable term structures or distant electoral cycles through late 2026, with limited verified developments indicating imminent departures. Shifts could arise from the Israeli vote outcome, surprise coalition realignments, or unforeseen institutional pressures in other capitals.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$277,607
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年前沒有" at 36%, followed by "內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）" has generated $277.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）" is "2027年前沒有" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？ （禁止Starmer或Petro ）" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.