Recent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於升息–暫停–再升息 37%
連升三次 33%
加息–加息–暫停 16%
升息–暫停–暫停 12%
$89,863 交易量
$89,863 交易量
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
37%
升息–暫停–暫停
12%
連升三次
33%
加息–加息–暫停
16%
其他
3%
升息–暫停–再升息 37%
連升三次 33%
加息–加息–暫停 16%
升息–暫停–暫停 12%
$89,863 交易量
$89,863 交易量
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
$7,688 交易量
37%
升息–暫停–暫停
$18,644 交易量
12%
連升三次
$17,530 交易量
33%
加息–加息–暫停
$21,909 交易量
16%
其他
$1,706 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$89,863結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$89,863結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent inflation readings and labor market resilience have kept Fed policy expectations finely balanced, with market-implied odds for the three-meeting sequence split closely between Hike–Pause–Hike at 35.5% and Hike–Hike–Hike at 32.5%. Traders are pricing in continued upward pressure on rates through year-end but remain sensitive to the precise timing of any pause, driven by incoming CPI prints, employment data, and FOMC guidance on the neutral rate. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect this tight contest, where stronger-than-expected growth or sticky core inflation could favor sustained hikes while cooler data might open room for a December pause.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions