Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 13- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives, with support in the mid-to-high 40s versus the low 30s. This positioning reflects voter response to Carney’s handling of U.S. trade tensions and recent by-election sweeps that expanded the Liberal seat cushion. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ currently place the Liberals well above 200 seats and the Conservatives below 100, far from any path to a majority or even a narrow plurality. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a Conservative flip in 2026 polls aligns with these stable trends and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of reversing the gap before scheduled parliamentary proceedings or the next fixed election date. Shifts could still arise from sudden economic deterioration, major policy reversals on trade or spending, or unexpected leadership developments, though none appear imminent in current data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 13- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives, with support in the mid-to-high 40s versus the low 30s. This positioning reflects voter response to Carney’s handling of U.S. trade tensions and recent by-election sweeps that expanded the Liberal seat cushion. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ currently place the Liberals well above 200 seats and the Conservatives below 100, far from any path to a majority or even a narrow plurality. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a Conservative flip in 2026 polls aligns with these stable trends and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of reversing the gap before scheduled parliamentary proceedings or the next fixed election date. Shifts could still arise from sudden economic deterioration, major policy reversals on trade or spending, or unexpected leadership developments, though none appear imminent in current data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
市場開放時間： Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
交易量
$8,241結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 13- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives, with support in the mid-to-high 40s versus the low 30s. This positioning reflects voter response to Carney’s handling of U.S. trade tensions and recent by-election sweeps that expanded the Liberal seat cushion. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ currently place the Liberals well above 200 seats and the Conservatives below 100, far from any path to a majority or even a narrow plurality. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a Conservative flip in 2026 polls aligns with these stable trends and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of reversing the gap before scheduled parliamentary proceedings or the next fixed election date. Shifts could still arise from sudden economic deterioration, major policy reversals on trade or spending, or unexpected leadership developments, though none appear imminent in current data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
交易量
$8,241結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETRecent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 13- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives, with support in the mid-to-high 40s versus the low 30s. This positioning reflects voter response to Carney’s handling of U.S. trade tensions and recent by-election sweeps that expanded the Liberal seat cushion. Seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ currently place the Liberals well above 200 seats and the Conservatives below 100, far from any path to a majority or even a narrow plurality. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a Conservative flip in 2026 polls aligns with these stable trends and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of reversing the gap before scheduled parliamentary proceedings or the next fixed election date. Shifts could still arise from sudden economic deterioration, major policy reversals on trade or spending, or unexpected leadership developments, though none appear imminent in current data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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