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icon for 加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案

加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案

icon for 加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案

加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案

44% 機率
Polymarket
最新

44% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 43, the legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would require two-thirds voter approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes (instead of a simple majority) beginning January 1, 2027, while also restricting certain new ad valorem property taxes in charter cities.** It emerged from a June 2026 compromise between Democratic legislative leaders, Governor Newsom’s office, and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to withdraw a more restrictive initiative that had threatened existing revenue measures. Organized opposition from public employee unions, local government associations, and special districts has highlighted risks to funding for schools, transportation, housing, and other services, arguing the change would empower minority blocs to block majority-supported initiatives. Taxpayer advocates counter that it restores consistency with the two-thirds threshold already applied to government-proposed special taxes and protects against low-turnout outcomes. With roughly six weeks until the election and limited early polling or campaign momentum shifts reported, traders assign a modest edge to rejection, reflecting the strength of revenue-dependent interest groups and the typical difficulty of passing ballot measures that constrain local fiscal tools.

Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$3,276
結束日期
2027-04-01
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 43, the legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would require two-thirds voter approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes (instead of a simple majority) beginning January 1, 2027, while also restricting certain new ad valorem property taxes in charter cities.** It emerged from a June 2026 compromise between Democratic legislative leaders, Governor Newsom’s office, and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to withdraw a more restrictive initiative that had threatened existing revenue measures. Organized opposition from public employee unions, local government associations, and special districts has highlighted risks to funding for schools, transportation, housing, and other services, arguing the change would empower minority blocs to block majority-supported initiatives. Taxpayer advocates counter that it restores consistency with the two-thirds threshold already applied to government-proposed special taxes and protects against low-turnout outcomes. With roughly six weeks until the election and limited early polling or campaign momentum shifts reported, traders assign a modest edge to rejection, reflecting the strength of revenue-dependent interest groups and the typical difficulty of passing ballot measures that constrain local fiscal tools.

Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$3,276
結束日期
2027-04-01
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加州地方稅收增稅門檻提案" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案" is "加州地方稅收增稅門檻提案" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "加州較高的地方稅投票門檻提案" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.